Noble Will Not Transition To ICS In One Year

Polkachu Intern | 2023-11-16

It's over for Bendy.

I am betting against Bendy on Crypto Twitter about Noble's future. I believe that Noble will not transition to ICS by the end of 2024. The wager is 100 ATOMs and the witnesses are worldwide degens on Crypto Twitter.

My reasons are as follows. In order for me to win and take Bendy's free money, I only need one of the reasons to play out in my favor.

1. The final boss of the Noble chain is Circle. Because of this, the validator set can make reasonable trade-offs between decentralization and ease of coordination. While CosmosHub's set of 180 validators is appealing in one dimension, it could lead to coordination nightmares when the unexpected happens. As a result, the Noble team will favor the current small but elite POA validator set over ICS.
2. By the way, do you know that Wormhole is secured by 19 guardians on a Tendermint chain? Basically, a POA chain can secure high-value assets and last forever. This will be the fate for Noble too.
3. ICS migration will introduce technical challenges and risks. As more and more Noble USDCs are issued each day, it becomes more and more unlikely that the project will make this undertaking. The most likely timing of Noble ICS was at its launch, and the second most likely time of Noble ICS is never.
4. CosmosHub's ICS adoption has slowed recently. After the initial fanfare of Neutron and Stride, there is no continued momentum. Both team seem to only have muted assessments about ICS. Basically, ICS is "Meh". Why do an elite chain like Noble opt for a "Meh" solution?
5. CosmosHub's ICS is no longer the only game in town. CosmosHub's market cap has been surpassed by Celestia recently. If Noble wants to get more security, why not just use Celestia as a DA layer while maintaining the current POA validator set and minimizing the transition risk?
6. And don't get me started with the CosmosHub community. The community has been voting down transformative proposals like CosmWasm and ATOM 2.0. Even a non-brainer prop like inflation reduction is met with much resistance. In other words, the CosmosHub community proves to be conservative, chaotic and drama-prone. On the other hand, Circle and Noble is innovation-driven, compliance-first, drama-free, and most importantly, intern-aligned. I cannot see why anyone thinks that Noble and ICS are a match made in heaven.

Granted, I will personally be happy if Noble does move to ICS. I am a big believer in CosmosHub and involved in the oversight committee of Prop 839. This bet is to help ease my pain if Noble does not migrate to ICS. If this happens, I will just take Bendy's ATOMs, buy myself some steak and cry myself to sleep every night.

It's over for me.